economy / politics

Brexit turkey evidence

barryhLeave a comment

More evidence of Brexit turkeys voting for Christmas in this Birmingham University Regional Paper on the economic impacts of Brexit, reported in today’s Guardian. What the paper aims to analyse is “the exposure of regions in the UK and the EU to Brexit, via an analysis of the nature and scale of their trade linkages”. (The paper itself looks rather complex – not easy reading.) The featured image shows the paper’s illustration of the level of impact by region.

Key findings include:

The UK regions are far more exposed than anywhere else in Europe, with regions in Ireland closely behind

The UK regions which voted leave are more exposed than those which voted Remain

The UK is 4.6 times more exposed than the rest of the EU – with the majority of EU countries facing almost no exposure at all – which means that in economic terms the UK is in a very weak bargaining position.

Results show that 2.64% of EU GDP is at risk because of Brexit trade related consequences. In the UK, Brexit trade related risks account for 12.2% of UK GDP.

The highest levels of regional GDP exposure to Brexit in the UK are found in many of the UK’s non-core regions in the Midlands and in the North of England.

So it’s pretty clear who has the strongest negotiating hand in the forthcoming trade talks.

 

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